The Post-Broadcast Age
Tuesday, July 22 2008
Another day and another list of two. Rob Norman, global CEO of GroupM Interaction, was proof that media people can be every bit as adept at bullet-pointers as planners.
Norman’s career started in what he calls the “perfect past” (mass production, mass retail, big retailers) and has tracked to a “new world order” that demands personalization, speed, fragmentation, interaction, multi-channel distribution, and the occasional conflict.
And the last decade has been the most chaotic. In 2000, Norman observed, the industry was characterized by broadcast media, passive audiences, and driven by devices. By 2010, the advertising will have completed the transition to addressable media, interactive audiences, supported by a comprehensive ecosystem.
“The ‘Channel of Me’ already is old news,” Norman told the Americana Ballroom’s Tuesday morning audience. “We’ve moved to co-creation of ideas and the division of authority. Consumers have self-organized with a series of interconnected networks and platforms.”
GroupM Interaction CEO Rob Norman: “The Channel of Me already is old news”
Norman cited seven macro trends that, he believes, will shape the post-broadcast age:
1. Media will become even more addressable:
- All electronic media will be identifiably and deliberately directed to household or individual levels.
- Most media will be better targeted, with less wastage, better research, and greater efficiency
- The concept of the ‘spot’ will disappear. Typically we will message ONLY to those individuals we wish to reach and spots will be shared (by audience) between brands and between corporations
- CPMs will rise to recognize the precision of targeting
Bottom Line: We will buy inventory tied to content AND to specific audiences and their behaviors. We will require far more targeting of specific messaging
2. Media will become more portable across time, device and place:
- DVR, IP delivery and other ‘on demand’ enablers will bring an end to the concept of scheduled viewing and listening
- Some people will actively self-schedule, while others will randomly retrieve centrally stored content
- Home and extended private networks will prevail. The word ‘television’ will cease to exist as a short hand for the combination of monitor and content
- The device ecosystem will include in-home, portable and in-car devices of practically unlimited storage
- Bottom line: Mobile devices will be the connective tissue between analog and digital media
3. Media will become more searchable:
- On demand environments are not served well by linear program guides
- Consumers globally have been accustomed to search as an interface to content
- It raises expectations that brands will be found
- Existing search platforms will simultaneously become universal and vertical
- Entertainment will be a major category in vertical search
Bottom line: These program ‘gateways’ will become highly sought after advertising destinations and one of the few areas in the future where first mover actions could create a ‘franchise position’ for brand owners
4. Media will become more social and massively distributed:
- Social networks including IM and SMS 2.0 applications are not a fad, they represent a sea change in how people communicate and organize
- They will represent one of the biggest shares of ‘media time’ and of influence on reputation
- All entertainment and advertising content will be either distributed or made available for discovery across networks and be allowed to be passed along
- All content will carry Digg, Reddit and de.lic.ious tags and their successors
- All advertising will carry the same tags and be trackable
- We will see our function migrate from media buyer to commercial content distributor
Bottom line: We will experience hyper-fragmentation of audiences and need to re-aggregate reach from thousands of sources
5. Media will become more interactive
- Media will become something we do as well as something we watch,
listen to and read
- Back to the future. Screen-based gaming, self-publishing and creative self-expression will rival professionally produced content for share of ‘media time’
- Consumers will expect to participate in and contribute to everything
- Experiences will become more immersive and participative
- There will be an opportunity to communicate in high attention environments
Bottom line: Brands will need to make deeper and richer communication content to capture its share of that attention
6. Media will become part of the transaction chain as well as the communication chain
- Increasing percentage of total sales will be online in CPG categories
- Many marketing communications will offer a re-direct to a transaction opportunity
- Mobile marketing will become the connective tissue from media to POS through QR and other codes
- Digital trade marketing through co-op advertising with retailer specific re-directs will grow rapidly
- Intelligent devices such as IP-enabled storage will interface with RFID to diagnose and execute remote replenishment
Bottom line: The home page of walmart.com and amazon.com will become a vital trade media battleground
7. Media will be everywhere
- Every analog channel will be digital
- Massive impact on POS marketing
- Customer information will increasingly be delivered electronically creating something of an opportunity for brand owners
- Massive opportunity to deliver long- and short-form communications
- Multiple devices will take on media like characteristics including domestic appliances, clothing and public spaces
Bottom line: A massive, massive, massive growth in micro-activation opportunities will offset the collapse in what we understand as mass media today
The seven macro trends most certainly will generate a series of responses, Norman continued, including:
- Hyper-fragmentation of media channels and audiences will require the delivery of new, more creative assets on a radically different cost base.
- Addressable TV and other media will require new trading and evaluation measures.
- Portability of media will mean portability of messaging and the opportunity to increase the value of “circumstance” as well as day part.
- Searchable media will demand a marketing response to intention to both product/category queries and entertainment searches.
- Social media will demand strategies that create corporate and brand favorability. Making brand ‘friends’ may be difficult (or impossible) at scale. Making brand ‘enemies’ will be incredibly easy.
- Massive distribution of media beyond regular channels will demand closer collaboration between advertisers and creators as co-producers, owners, and brand integrators.
- Media as promotional currency will be used – “buy-two-get-PPV-free”
- Consumers will expect interactivity with brands but use it very rarely.
- Brands will operate productively as enablers of user-created content.
Bottom line: The role of media in the transaction chain will influence the shortest-term effect of marketing. That will happen directly through e-commerce and RFID/QR recognition as well as indirectly through time-and place-based promotions.
The 21st Century value chain that GroupM Interaction foresees is grounded in a transition from a reach-and-frequency business to a reach-engagement-reputation-and-transaction value chain.
Rob Norman’s presentation sums up the changing dynamics of media
Says Norman, we will come to remember 20th Century solutions as relentless supply-side optimization featuring less of everything-including people, energy, time, out-of-stock items, and over-stock items.
And, for the balance of the 21st Century, Norman fully expects a shift to relentless demand-side optimization and more of everything-including channels, networks, devices, and behaviors.
Norman ended with a sharp warning to the creative community: Because of consumer empowerment and their ability to speak and consume, agencies need to create both a greater variety of and more refined advertising if it wants to enjoy the same kind of success it enjoyed in the perfect past of mass media, mass production, and big retailers.
“The creative community has a reputation that still hangs around a lot of clients,” he said, “and they don’t want to hear that a project is delayed because, ‘We have to wait for the light to be right in New Zealand.'”